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JoSH Lehan

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Predicting Maine vote results [Nov. 2nd, 2009|11:32 pm]
JoSH Lehan
[music |A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request]

I'm thinking about the Maine vote. Unfortunately, I predict a narrow loss. A recent poll result was 46-48-6. We will lose, by an extremely narrow margin, something around 51% or 52%, less than Prop 8, but still not enough to cross the magic 50% threshhold.

As you remember, the final Prop 8 poll was 43-47-10. The poll numbers looked good but 100% (yes, one hundred percent) of the "undecided" voters were really Yes On 8 voters who were too polite to admit it. That gave a final vote result of 53-47, we lost. Unfortunately, it looks like Maine is shaping up for a similar result, most likely 52-48, going by that recent poll.

Or, perhaps I could be pleasantly surprised? A win would be something to be overjoyed about.

Being gay, and voting, is like being a Cubs fan. Year after year after year after year....

[User Picture]From: krellan
2009-11-04 06:59 am (UTC)
Sadly, it came true, exactly as predicted.


Your final results are between 52% and 53% for the loss.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: krellan
2009-11-06 08:56 am (UTC)

Finally, somebody else gets the point I've been trying to make for over a year now: the "undecided" numbers in the polls are not to be trusted!


There really is no middle ground on this issue. With all the publicity and drama around the elections, two years in a row, people have already made up their mind.

Whenever you do a poll and get an "undecided" result, simply add the undecided to the antigay column.

You will then get a poll that matches, within at most a 1% variance, of the actual election results.
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