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JoSH Lehan

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Predicting Maine vote results [Nov. 2nd, 2009|11:32 pm]
JoSH Lehan
[music |A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request]

I'm thinking about the Maine vote. Unfortunately, I predict a narrow loss. A recent poll result was 46-48-6. We will lose, by an extremely narrow margin, something around 51% or 52%, less than Prop 8, but still not enough to cross the magic 50% threshhold.

As you remember, the final Prop 8 poll was 43-47-10. The poll numbers looked good but 100% (yes, one hundred percent) of the "undecided" voters were really Yes On 8 voters who were too polite to admit it. That gave a final vote result of 53-47, we lost. Unfortunately, it looks like Maine is shaping up for a similar result, most likely 52-48, going by that recent poll.

Or, perhaps I could be pleasantly surprised? A win would be something to be overjoyed about.

Being gay, and voting, is like being a Cubs fan. Year after year after year after year....
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: krellan
2009-11-04 06:59 am (UTC)
Sadly, it came true, exactly as predicted.

http://www.bangordailynews.com/electionresults.html

Your final results are between 52% and 53% for the loss.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: krellan
2009-11-06 08:56 am (UTC)
http://www.advocate.com/article.aspx?id=101717

Finally, somebody else gets the point I've been trying to make for over a year now: the "undecided" numbers in the polls are not to be trusted!

http://krellan.livejournal.com/61612.html

There really is no middle ground on this issue. With all the publicity and drama around the elections, two years in a row, people have already made up their mind.

Whenever you do a poll and get an "undecided" result, simply add the undecided to the antigay column.

You will then get a poll that matches, within at most a 1% variance, of the actual election results.
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